Breakup of the United Kingdom

[sharoma]

In this post, I will assume the United Kingdom itself will break up. History may view this as a continuance of the breakup of the British Empire, with the UK itself being one of the Empire’s first creations. The UK’s current military outlook is coloured by its former role as the paramount power. Its political establishment is highly corrupt and subservient to aristocratic and banking cartels. Its economic outlook is self-harming. Its unwinding back to the Kingdom or state of England would be a natural regression. In previous posts I have assumed that in the short and medium term, the UK will not break up. The British Government is opposed to Scottish independence, as is the monarchy. The following is therefore unlikely speculation. If the UK did break up, I assume the individual nations would gravitate instantly back towards the EU as European integration would be essential for prosperity. If the UK does not break up, it must seek much stronger integration with the USA and its other close military allies and to avoid economic collapse, reduce its military commitments rather than increase them.

Firstly, Ireland should be united if the EU is capable and willing to intercede with the Unionist populations there. Hopefully, there would be few changes to the way of life in the former Northern area, other than the introduction of the Euro and an increase in the standard of living (people in the Republic are wealthier than those in the North). England will gain because Northern Ireland has to be subsidized by the rest of the UK. The area formerly Northern Ireland will instantly rejoin the European Union on Ireland’s terms. The precedent for this is when Germany united; East Germany immediately joined the European Economic Community as part of (the former West) Germany. When the UK and Ireland joined the EEC in 1973, they did so together. For Euro adoption to be smooth across the British Isles, it should happen all at once. This means England, Scotland, and Wales should all adopt the Euro the day the former Northern Ireland does.

A second referendum should be granted to Scotland regarding independence. If independence is approved, the transition of Atlantic defence and movement of British Armed Forces assets out of Scotland would be negotiated by the EU and NATO. The latter may be disbanded completely, especially if the USA leaves. Scotland’s accession to the EU would be swift if recognition was given to the fact that most Scots voted to remain in the EU in 2016. Terms could be less favourable, considering Scotland’s small population and modest GDP. The Euro would be introduced. It’s possible Scotland may receive even more EU aid than it did as part of the UK up until 2020, as it would be a ‘poor’ country within the EU.

Thirdly, the end of monarchy in England and a referendum on Welsh independence. If England reverts to a Kingdom and/or sovereign state on its own, then it would be logical for it to rejoin the EU. The favourable terms, such as retention of Sterling and a sizable rebate, would be less likely. If the EU was to gain the currency power of GBP to add to its own, it could rival the US Dollar as a reserve currency. This is a bargaining tool the British still hold, but only if they agree to join the Euro and convert all Sterling assets into Euro ones. If Scotland and Northern Ireland both adopted the Euro, it would make sense for England to adopt it at the same time. If it didn’t, the former GB Pound would lose a lot of value as England became extremely economically isolated. The EU would gain free market access to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, at the same time England loses it.

England would have a quieter voice within the EU than the UK did. Further reduction in UK defence commitments would be justified, saving enough money to cover the loss of Scotland and Northern Ireland’s GDP share (and possibly Wales too). With no more UK, the new English government (Westminster and the Eton system should also be abolished) could and should walk away from all military commitments besides the defence of its own coastline. A poorer British Isles cannot be even a part-time world policeman anymore. The European Union must take on this role. To summarize:

• The deletion of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and its replacement by sovereign states consisting of England, Scotland, and Wales (possibly as republics).
• The unification and subsequent enlargement of the Republic of Ireland.
• England, Scotland, and Wales all join the European Union ‘for the first time’ and adopt the Euro.
• The subsequent population enlargement of the EU.
• The deletion of the British monarchy and the corrupt Westminster system.
• The deletion of the GBP currency and subsequent enlargement of the Eurozone.
• The increased power of the Euro. It would rival the American and Chinese currencies or possibly surpass them.
• European Union armed forces to take on the role of defending the sea routes into the Atlantic. France has a Atlantic ports, aircraft carriers, and nuclear weapons. With Germany and Poland, the EU can easily defend itself from all sides.
• British Armed Forces are renamed as British Isles Group, a new entity within the EU’s armed forces. Alongside Germany and France, English contributions would likely be similar. Scottish units would serve alongside English ones still, but within the EU rather than the UK.
• The European Union inherits France and Britain’s atomic weapons and becomes a nuclear power. The EU would inherit the strategic projection and esteem once held by the European components of NATO.
• NATO would be dissolved and America left to form an Atlantic Command if it wishes. Removal of US military assets from British Isles. Without the creation of a European Union armed forces system to defend the whole continent, negotiations regarding the boundaries of NATO or English and American armed forces commands may drag on for a long time.